Fantasy Football Mistakes to Avoid
by Kevin of RotoPicks.com Staff
It never fails. Every year I go to my local draft and see people make draft mistakes that will cost them for each week of the NFL season. These mistakes could have been avoided had the league members studied properly, but they obviousy didn't! Let's take a look at some of those mistakes to assure that you aren't that guy astute fantasy NFL'ers will be chuckling about.
Avoid RBBC Teams (Running Back by Committee)
RBBC seems to be trending in the wrong direction which is a fantasy player's nightmare. It's hard enough to pick one back that will be productive, much less being forced to select which player out of 2 or 3 will help your team the most. I will say that there's a fine line here though. SOME situations are ok to partake in such as the 2012 Chicago Bears. Matt Forte is coming off of a serious injury. While he appears fit to have a productive season, it's highly unlikely that the coaching staff is going to expose him to all of the hammering/jarring that goes on at the goalline. There's a reason that the team signed Michael Bush. Not only does he provide a solid insurance policy, he provides the team with a solid option on the goalline which will preserve Forte's legs. This is a rare instance in which multiple running back's from the same team are an o.k. situation.
A situation to avoid is a team that doesn't have a defined starter. A team that has a first and second down back, a third down back and a goalline back (VULCHER!). This will drive you absolutely mad, so do yourself a favor and cross those players off your list before the draft even starts. Only consider these players in deep leagues (16 teams) and keep them as a last option for a reserve position that you only plan on using due to injury or bye week.
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Don't Wait Too Long to Draft Running Backs
This is an understatement. Don't wait any time at all! Your first TWO picks should be running backs! An astute fantasy NFL player can't help but chuckle when they see another team owner spending his top draft picks on QB's or WR's. Why you ask? Running Back's are at a premium. There's only so many of them (so few( that put up productive numbers. Once you get past the 1st and 2nd teir tailbacks, you start getting into running back by committee situations and even some teams who throw the ball so much that their running back isn't worth having in your starting lineup.
Another way to look at this is statistically. The falloff between top running backs and "the rest" is HUGE compared to Quarterback's in which there's not a whole lot of difference between the best and the worst. Most QB's aren't part of a committee or time share, therefore they're more predictable. You can wait on drafting a QB and still get one that will produce positive results for your team.
I'm only going to touch on the WR/TE topic. If you take a Wide Receiver or Tight End in the first two rounds you might as well mark down a loss before the game even starts because it's a recipe for disaster. Yes, MegaTron is a beat, yes Gronk is a stud too. Don't let being a "fan" supercede your ability to pick a winning roster. Those guys are great but not worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick. Do youself a favor and stick with RB's! You'll be so glad that you did!
Take a Pass vs. Good Defensive Teams
There's a popular phrase amongst astute football fans that says "Defense Wins Super Bowls." And that's the truth. A good defense will wreak havoc on a good offense. While good defenses in today's game are rare, they do exist and should be avoided, even if the best offesnes are facing them. Especially if that good offense is on the road. Can the good offense do well? Sure, anything can happen! There's risk involved though and it's best that you go with as many "sure bets" as you possibly can. This increases your odds of winning long term and that's the name of the game!
Bankroll Management
We should of listed this first, as outside of drafting a good team, this is probably the most important (and overlooked) facet of weekly fantasy football. Even the best weekly fantasy football players have bad weeks. If you deposit $500 or $1000, don't spend it all in one week. If you have that inevitable bad week, you're whole bankroll is toast and you either have to make that painful reach into your wallet for your Visa or even worse, wait until your next payday before you can get into the action! That sucks!
A good rule of thumb would be to never put more than one third (33%) of your bankroll into action on any given week. An even better proposition would be to never put more than one fifth (20%) of your money on the line in any given week. You'll have highs and lows as a weekly (or daily) fantasy football player and the key to surviving and winning long term is to be able to sustain through those periods. This can be really tough as yours truly has made this mistake on many of occasion and paid dearly.
Another Good Tip: Take some money off the table if you're up a significant amount. The ideal situation is to get up a bunch and then withdrawal your stake (original amount of money that you deposited.) This results in you playing with the house's money and ALL risk being removed. Better yet, take some profits in that payout as well. Nobody ever lost money taking profits!
Got questions? Feel free to drop us a line at rotopicks@hotmail.com. Heck, we may even write an article about your topic if it's a good one!
Good luck with your leagues!
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