Fantasy Baseball Busts

2015 Fantasy Baseball Hitter Busts

The 2015 Major League Baseball season is upon us and we all want to know who will underperform their projections (busts). There are many metrics you can use to find a hitter who will regress or not live up to expectations including abnormally high BABIP, high HR/FB%, K rates, etc. Here are some guys we dug up who might have disappointing seasons.

CATCHERS

Tyler Flowers

Flowers hit .241 with 15 homeruns last year which are decent numbers for a catcher. But hold on. His BABIP was way too high, .355, and that is likely to drop about 50 points. He also has no plate discipline (25 BB to 159 K with a less than .300 OBP). Finally, his contact percentage was only about 63%, whereas the MLB average is 78.5%. This huge gap probably implies Flowers is an all or nothing kind of guess hitter who just takes his hacks. Well, I won't be taking a hack on him this year.

Devin Mesoraco

Mesoraco had a great year last year, especially for a catcher, when he hit .280 - 25 HR - 80 RBI. But let us start with the power surge. His HR/FB ratio was a whopping 15.2%, more than double from the year before. This will decline as it normally does. His BABIP does not seem so high at .309, until you compare it with his normal BABIP numbers, .234 in 2012 and .264 in 2013. His line drive percent of 29% is not sustainable at all (to put it in perspective, it was better than Mike Trout's 28% line drive ratio). His contact percentage was also 7% points less than the league average. These signs all indicate a decline for the Reds catcher.

FIRST BASEMEN

Freddie Freeman

For some reason Freeman is ranked as the eighth best first basemen in fantasy baseball. People are factoring in a prediction for a breakout year, but I think we have already seen all there is to see. Our first baseman needs power, and simply put, Freeman does not have it. 11 players topped 30 HR last year and they averaged a 19.65% line drive rate and a fly ball rate of 42.7%. Freeman had a 31% line drive rate to go with a 32.5% fly ball rate. In other words, Freeman is a line drive, gap to gap hitter who will help you in average, but not necessarily in homeruns - and we need those homeruns from our first baseman. Not to mention the fact that Atlanta's lineup is putrid. Freeman's protection? Chris Johnson? Um, no thank you.

Victor Martinez

VMart had a monster year last year with a .335 average and 32 homeruns. Yet, upon closer inspection, we notice the 36 year old had a HR/FB ratio of a very high 11.5%, while his career rate was only about 7% and the league average is also around 7%. This ratio tends to revert back to normal, and this was also VMart's first 30 HR season in 12 years. Needless to say the HR total will go down. Martinez also had a career high .409 OBP and 70 walks, but 28 of those walks were intentional. This was probably because there was a guy on second, so that OBP will most likely go down. Lastly, at his age, we have to worry about Martinez's age and health history. Time is not on his side, and we probably saw the best he has to offer last year, not this year.

SECOND BASEMEN

Jose Altuve

The Houston little man contributes in only 3 categories: average, runs, and stolen bases, but average was probably falsely inflated due to his league leading BABIP of .360, a number that just cannot be sustained from year to year. Without average, you are better off with the cheaper option of someone like Dee Gordon than you are with Altuve.

THIRD BASEMEN

Josh Harrison

Josh Harrison came out of nowhere and hit .315 with an .837 OPS, but this could be due to a lucky BABIP of .353, a number that is likely to decrease this year. Another alarming statistic is Harrison completely lacks plate discipline and swung at 38% of pitches outside of the zone and he only had a 4% walk rate. Nothing before 2014 said Harrison could even be a major league regular, so I'm chalking up 2014 as a fluke.

Lonnie Chisenhall

Chisenhall hit .280 last year with 13 HR and 59 RBI in 142 games. That is pretty much a full season for a fantasy player and we just need more output from a corner infield spot. His .280 average was inflated due to a high BABIP of .328 (compared to a career .297 BABIP). I always like to see players finish strong and Chisenhall hit only .218 in the second half of 2014. His HR/FB% was a bit lowere than normal so we might see an increase in pop, but I do not predict the eventual breakout like some of the other analysts believe.

SHORTSTOPS

Troy Tulowitzki

It pains me to add Tulo to this list because he is one of my favorite players, but the guy just cannot stay healthy. In 9 years, he had less than 400 AB four times. He tore up the league last year but played in only 91 games. He hit .340 with 21 HR. But when we look closer, it was the Coors Field effect. At home, he hit .417 with 14 HR. Away, he only hit .257 with 7 HR. Now that Tulo is a possible trade candidate, if he moves away from Coors Field, I would be very leery of him as the elite shortstop option in the Major Leagues, due to his dominance in Colorado and injury history.

J.J. Hardy

Hardy is getting old and to be honest, he had mixed signals in 2014. In the first half he hit .280 with 3 HR, but in the second half he hit only .249 with 6 HR. I believe the years of 20+ HR are over. He had a very low HR/FB% rate at less than 5%, but there weren't enough doubles to justify the power is still there (28 doubles in 529 AB). Shortstop is a very thin position and if you want a chance at a better than average power surge, I would still look elsewhere as it seems Hardy's age is slowing hit bat down and decreasing his power.

OUTFIELDERS

Nelson Cruz

Cruz may not bust per say but he will be overvalued after leading the MLB in homeruns last year with 40. Cruz is already 34 and had only once hit the 30 HR mark before 2014. Cruz is also going to a terrible hitter's ballpark in Seattle with a fairly weak lineup around him. In his career at Safeco, Cruz's numbers are horrible: .234 with nine home runs and a .749 OPS in 184 at-bats. Add to that the fact that Cruz has problems staying healthy and he is atop many bust lists this year. Buyer beware.

Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes is on my bust list because the name is greater than the output. There must be a reason Cespedes, now on Detroit, has played for 3 teams in 2 years. He had an awful .301 OBP due to a low walk rate of 5.4% and a low average of .260. The average is for real as his BABIP was pretty normal, .293. His HR/FB% is in line with the average at 8.7% so all the signs are there that we have seen exactly what Cespedes is, and nothing more. He gets drafted earlier than he should as just a .260 - 25 HR outfielder with just a .300 OBP.

Billy Hamilton

I am putting Hamilton on this list because he is a one trick pony, he steals bases. In rotisserie leagues, he was the 16th best outfielder, but in head to head leagues, he was way down to the 33rd best outfielder. This is because in rotisserie, Hamilton's 56 SB would help your team move up in the SB category a lot, but in head to head matches, his SB were worth probably only a point or two each week/day. I may be biased but I need power from my outfielders and Hamilton had only 6 HR and 48 RBI. So, sure he will get his SB, but do not overpay for an outfielder with only one strength.

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List of 2014 Qualifying Hitters from Highest to Lowest BABIP

Regression candidates due for a fall are towards the top.

Rk	Name	Age	Tm	PA	BAbip ▾	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Lorenzo Cain	28	KCR	502	0.380	0.301	0.339	0.412	0.751
2	Starling Marte	25	PIT	545	0.373	0.291	0.356	0.453	0.808
3	Jose Altuve	24	HOU	707	0.360	0.341	0.377	0.453	0.830
4	Adam Eaton*	25	CHW	538	0.359	0.300	0.362	0.401	0.763
5	Jose Abreu	27	CHW	622	0.356	0.317	0.383	0.581	0.964
6	Yasiel Puig	23	LAD	640	0.356	0.296	0.382	0.480	0.863
7	Christian Yelich*	22	MIA	660	0.356	0.284	0.362	0.402	0.764
8	Andrew McCutchen	27	PIT	648	0.355	0.314	0.410	0.542	0.952
9	Josh Harrison	26	PIT	550	0.353	0.315	0.347	0.490	0.837
10	Giancarlo Stanton	24	MIA	638	0.353	0.288	0.395	0.555	0.950
11	Dexter Fowler#	28	HOU	505	0.351	0.276	0.375	0.399	0.774
12	Freddie Freeman*	24	ATL	708	0.351	0.288	0.386	0.461	0.847
13	Mike Trout	22	LAA	705	0.349	0.287	0.377	0.561	0.939
14	Howie Kendrick	30	LAA	674	0.347	0.293	0.347	0.397	0.744
15	Miguel Cabrera	31	DET	685	0.346	0.313	0.371	0.524	0.895
16	Dee Gordon*	26	LAD	650	0.346	0.289	0.326	0.378	0.704
17	Adrian Beltre	35	TEX	614	0.345	0.324	0.388	0.492	0.879
18	Chris Johnson	29	ATL	611	0.345	0.263	0.292	0.361	0.653
19	Matt Kemp	29	LAD	599	0.345	0.287	0.346	0.506	0.852
20	Jayson Werth	35	WSN	629	0.343	0.292	0.394	0.455	0.849
21	Joe Mauer*	31	MIN	518	0.342	0.277	0.361	0.371	0.732
22	Marlon Byrd	36	PHI	637	0.341	0.264	0.312	0.445	0.757
23	Carlos Gomez	28	MIL	644	0.339	0.284	0.356	0.477	0.833
24	Matt Adams*	25	STL	563	0.338	0.288	0.321	0.457	0.779
25	Starlin Castro	24	CHC	569	0.337	0.292	0.339	0.438	0.777
26	Marcell Ozuna	23	MIA	612	0.337	0.269	0.317	0.455	0.772
27	Leonys Martin*	26	TEX	583	0.336	0.274	0.325	0.364	0.689
28	Robinson Cano*	31	SEA	665	0.335	0.314	0.382	0.454	0.836
29	Casey McGehee	31	MIA	691	0.335	0.287	0.355	0.357	0.712
30	Alex Rios	33	TEX	521	0.335	0.280	0.311	0.398	0.709
31	Michael Brantley*	27	CLE	676	0.333	0.327	0.385	0.506	0.890
32	Justin Upton	26	ATL	641	0.332	0.270	0.342	0.491	0.833
33	David Freese	31	LAA	511	0.330	0.260	0.321	0.383	0.704
34	Justin Morneau*	33	COL	550	0.330	0.319	0.364	0.496	0.860
35	Ben Revere*	26	PHI	626	0.330	0.306	0.325	0.361	0.686
36	Denard Span*	30	WSN	668	0.330	0.302	0.355	0.416	0.771
37	Lonnie Chisenhall*	25	CLE	533	0.328	0.280	0.343	0.427	0.770
38	Nick Castellanos	22	DET	579	0.326	0.259	0.306	0.394	0.700
39	Ian Desmond	28	WSN	648	0.326	0.255	0.313	0.430	0.743
40	Alcides Escobar	27	KCR	620	0.326	0.285	0.317	0.377	0.694
41	Yan Gomes	26	CLE	518	0.326	0.278	0.313	0.472	0.785
42	Conor Gillaspie*	26	CHW	506	0.325	0.282	0.336	0.416	0.752
43	Austin Jackson	27	TOT	656	0.325	0.256	0.308	0.347	0.655
44	David Wright	31	NYM	586	0.325	0.269	0.324	0.374	0.698
45	Jonathan Lucroy	28	MIL	655	0.324	0.301	0.373	0.465	0.837
46	Adeiny Hechavarria	25	MIA	574	0.323	0.276	0.308	0.356	0.664
47	Hanley Ramirez	30	LAD	512	0.323	0.283	0.369	0.448	0.817
48	DJ LeMahieu	25	COL	538	0.322	0.267	0.315	0.348	0.663
49	Daniel Murphy*	29	NYM	642	0.322	0.289	0.332	0.403	0.734
50	James Loney*	30	TBR	651	0.319	0.290	0.336	0.380	0.716
51	Buster Posey	27	SFG	605	0.319	0.311	0.364	0.490	0.854
52	Matt Carpenter*	28	STL	709	0.318	0.272	0.375	0.375	0.750
53	Hunter Pence	31	SFG	708	0.318	0.277	0.332	0.445	0.777
54	Alejandro De Aza*	30	TOT	528	0.317	0.252	0.314	0.386	0.700
55	J.J. Hardy	31	BAL	569	0.317	0.268	0.309	0.372	0.682
56	Melky Cabrera#	29	TOR	621	0.316	0.301	0.351	0.458	0.808
57	Victor Martinez#	35	DET	641	0.316	0.335	0.409	0.565	0.974
58	Charlie Blackmon*	27	COL	648	0.315	0.288	0.335	0.440	0.775
59	Nori Aoki*	32	KCR	549	0.314	0.285	0.349	0.360	0.710
60	Anthony Rendon	24	WSN	683	0.314	0.287	0.351	0.473	0.824
61	Kole Calhoun*	26	LAA	537	0.313	0.272	0.325	0.450	0.776
62	Eric Hosmer*	24	KCR	547	0.312	0.270	0.318	0.398	0.716
63	Jose Reyes#	31	TOR	655	0.312	0.287	0.328	0.398	0.726
64	Torii Hunter	38	DET	586	0.311	0.286	0.319	0.446	0.765
65	Adam Jones	28	BAL	682	0.311	0.281	0.311	0.469	0.780
66	Anthony Rizzo*	24	CHC	616	0.311	0.286	0.386	0.527	0.913
67	Billy Butler	28	KCR	603	0.310	0.271	0.323	0.379	0.702
68	Alex Gordon*	30	KCR	643	0.310	0.266	0.351	0.432	0.783
69	Martin Prado	30	TOT	573	0.310	0.282	0.321	0.412	0.733
70	Aramis Ramirez	36	MIL	531	0.310	0.285	0.330	0.427	0.757
71	Kurt Suzuki	30	MIN	503	0.310	0.288	0.345	0.383	0.727
72	Todd Frazier	28	CIN	660	0.309	0.273	0.336	0.459	0.795
73	Shin-Soo Choo*	31	TEX	529	0.308	0.242	0.340	0.374	0.714
74	Jason Heyward*	24	ATL	649	0.308	0.271	0.351	0.384	0.735
75	Brandon Crawford*	27	SFG	564	0.307	0.246	0.324	0.389	0.713
76	Dustin Pedroia	30	BOS	609	0.307	0.278	0.337	0.376	0.712
77	Gerardo Parra*	27	TOT	574	0.306	0.261	0.308	0.369	0.677
78	Elvis Andrus	25	TEX	685	0.305	0.263	0.314	0.333	0.647
79	Brett Gardner*	30	NYY	636	0.305	0.256	0.327	0.422	0.749
80	Seth Smith*	31	SDP	521	0.305	0.266	0.367	0.440	0.807
81	Ryan Braun	30	MIL	580	0.304	0.266	0.324	0.453	0.777
82	Billy Hamilton#	23	CIN	611	0.304	0.250	0.292	0.355	0.648
83	Chase Headley#	30	TOT	531	0.301	0.243	0.328	0.372	0.700
84	Dioner Navarro#	30	TOR	520	0.301	0.274	0.317	0.395	0.712
85	Ben Zobrist#	33	TBR	654	0.301	0.272	0.354	0.395	0.749
86	Pablo Sandoval#	27	SFG	638	0.300	0.279	0.324	0.415	0.739
87	Nick Markakis*	30	BAL	710	0.299	0.276	0.342	0.386	0.729
88	Trevor Plouffe	28	MIN	582	0.299	0.258	0.328	0.423	0.751
89	Matt Holliday	34	STL	667	0.298	0.272	0.370	0.441	0.811
90	Erick Aybar#	30	LAA	642	0.297	0.278	0.321	0.379	0.700
	LgAvg per 600 PA			600	0.297	0.249	0.312	0.383	0.695
91	Xander Bogaerts	21	BOS	594	0.296	0.240	0.297	0.362	0.660
92	Jacoby Ellsbury*	30	NYY	635	0.296	0.271	0.328	0.419	0.747
93	Desmond Jennings	27	TBR	542	0.296	0.244	0.319	0.378	0.697
94	Kyle Seager*	26	SEA	654	0.296	0.268	0.334	0.454	0.788
95	Chase Utley*	35	PHI	664	0.295	0.270	0.339	0.407	0.746
96	Jason Castro*	27	HOU	512	0.294	0.222	0.286	0.366	0.651
97	Adrian Gonzalez*	32	LAD	660	0.294	0.276	0.335	0.482	0.817
98	Derek Jeter	40	NYY	634	0.294	0.256	0.304	0.313	0.617
99	Luis Valbuena*	28	CHC	547	0.294	0.249	0.341	0.435	0.776
100	Yoenis Cespedes	28	TOT	645	0.293	0.260	0.301	0.450	0.751
101	Jhonny Peralta	32	STL	628	0.292	0.263	0.336	0.443	0.779
102	Alexei Ramirez	32	CHW	657	0.292	0.273	0.305	0.408	0.713
103	Garrett Jones*	33	MIA	547	0.290	0.246	0.309	0.411	0.720
104	Nelson Cruz	33	BAL	678	0.288	0.271	0.333	0.525	0.859
105	Ryan Howard*	34	PHI	648	0.288	0.223	0.310	0.380	0.690
106	Ian Kinsler	32	DET	726	0.288	0.275	0.307	0.420	0.727
107	Jason Kipnis*	27	CLE	555	0.288	0.240	0.310	0.330	0.640
108	Neil Walker#	28	PIT	571	0.288	0.271	0.342	0.467	0.809
109	Jose Bautista	33	TOR	673	0.287	0.286	0.403	0.524	0.928
110	Adam Dunn*	34	TOT	511	0.286	0.219	0.337	0.415	0.752
111	B.J. Upton	29	ATL	582	0.286	0.208	0.287	0.333	0.620
112	Evan Longoria	28	TBR	700	0.285	0.253	0.320	0.404	0.724
113	Jordy Mercer	27	PIT	555	0.285	0.255	0.305	0.387	0.693
114	Lucas Duda*	28	NYM	596	0.283	0.253	0.349	0.481	0.830
115	Brandon Moss*	30	OAK	580	0.283	0.234	0.334	0.438	0.772
116	Yunel Escobar	31	TBR	529	0.282	0.258	0.324	0.340	0.664
117	Jed Lowrie#	30	OAK	566	0.281	0.249	0.321	0.355	0.676
118	Josh Donaldson	28	OAK	695	0.278	0.255	0.342	0.456	0.798
119	Salvador Perez	24	KCR	606	0.278	0.260	0.289	0.403	0.692
120	Adam LaRoche*	34	WSN	586	0.277	0.259	0.362	0.455	0.817
121	Aaron Hill	32	ARI	541	0.276	0.244	0.287	0.367	0.654
122	Khris Davis	26	MIL	549	0.275	0.244	0.299	0.457	0.756
123	Omar Infante	32	KCR	575	0.275	0.252	0.295	0.337	0.632
124	Miguel Montero*	30	ARI	560	0.275	0.243	0.329	0.370	0.699
125	Jean Segura	24	MIL	557	0.275	0.246	0.289	0.326	0.614
126	Yangervis Solarte#	26	TOT	535	0.275	0.260	0.336	0.369	0.705
127	Dustin Ackley*	26	SEA	542	0.273	0.245	0.293	0.398	0.692
128	Asdrubal Cabrera#	28	TOT	616	0.272	0.241	0.307	0.387	0.694
129	Domonic Brown*	26	PHI	512	0.269	0.235	0.285	0.349	0.634
130	Jay Bruce*	27	CIN	545	0.269	0.217	0.281	0.373	0.654
131	Brian Dozier	27	MIN	707	0.269	0.242	0.345	0.416	0.762
132	Jimmy Rollins#	35	PHI	609	0.269	0.243	0.323	0.394	0.717
133	Chris Carter	27	HOU	572	0.267	0.227	0.308	0.491	0.799
134	Allen Craig	29	TOT	505	0.266	0.215	0.279	0.315	0.594
135	Coco Crisp#	34	OAK	536	0.266	0.246	0.336	0.363	0.699
136	Curtis Granderson*	33	NYM	654	0.265	0.227	0.326	0.388	0.714
137	Albert Pujols	34	LAA	695	0.265	0.272	0.324	0.466	0.790
138	Andrelton Simmons	24	ATL	576	0.263	0.244	0.286	0.331	0.617
139	Dayan Viciedo	25	CHW	563	0.261	0.231	0.281	0.405	0.686
140	Edwin Encarnacion	31	TOR	542	0.260	0.268	0.354	0.547	0.901
141	David Ortiz*	38	BOS	602	0.256	0.263	0.355	0.517	0.873
142	Zack Cozart	28	CIN	543	0.255	0.221	0.268	0.300	0.568
143	Carlos Santana#	28	CLE	660	0.249	0.231	0.365	0.427	0.792
144	Matt Dominguez	24	HOU	607	0.244	0.215	0.256	0.330	0.586
145	Chris Davis*	28	BAL	525	0.242	0.196	0.300	0.404	0.704
146	Mark Teixeira#	34	NYY	508	0.233	0.216	0.313	0.398	0.711
147	Brian McCann*	30	NYY	538	0.231	0.232	0.286	0.406	0.692
*	Left Handed Batter
#	Switch Hitter

Be sure to check out our article featuring 2015 Pitcher Busts!

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