Avoid Fantasy Baseball Rookies

8 Reasons to Avoid Fantasy Baseball Rookies
by Adam of Rotopicks.com

There is nothing more exciting than seeing a kid rise to prominence after getting his first crack in the big leagues. In the modern era, we are reminded of rookie phenoms who took the world by storm when they hit the big stage. Most baseball fans can remember Mark "The Bird" Fidrych talking to himself on the mound, Stephen Strasburg throwing 101 mph in his debut, Fernando Valenzuela looking to the sky during his windup, Mike Trout making a run for MVP in his rookie year, the anticipation of seeing Bryce Harper play after watching his viral YouTube clips, etc. There surely is something poetic about an innocent kid growing into an historic professional baseball player right in front of our eyes, but when it comes to fantasy baseball of all shapes and sizes, it is wise to remain objective... more specifically, it almost always benefits you to avoid fantasy baseball rookies at all costs.

Here is a list of the top eight reasons to steer clear of the hype surrounding rookies, and to stick with veterans when constructing a fantasy baseball lineup.

1. Rookies lack experience. By definition, a rookie has not spent time in the major leagues. Baseball is a game of attrition. It is a long 162 game season during which pitchers train to perfect their delivery so every motion is the same for every pitch. Hitters spend their lives in batting cages doing the same. Fielders shag fly balls and grounders at a clip of hundreds per day. Practice makes the player. Without these routines, a player cannot succeed. The same can be said for playing in the major leagues, on a major league field, against other major league players. To truly be good, you need the experience and routines of immersing yourself in that major league world. A rookie is like a newly enlisted soldier in boot camp. Sure, they may have innate survival skills, but there is a painful learning and hazing process instilled by those who outrank them, before the cadet is comfortable, accepted, and armed with the proper tools to survive amongst the big boys.

2. Rookies tend to lack opportunities. Due to lack of experience in pressure situations on the big stage, rookies tend to get "broken in" and managers try to avoid killing their ego and setting them up for failure. As a result, rookies tend to hit low in the lineup and get pinch hit for in crucial RBI spots. This is not what you want on your fantasy team. It's all about opportunity.

3. Rookies fatigue easily. As previously stated the MLB season is extremely long. Rookies are sometimes a year or three removed from high school, where they only had to play 30 or so games of 7 innings each. To expect them to adapt easily to 162 games of 9 innings each is unrealistic. As a result, like reason #2, opportunity for rookies is often limited to ensure no injuries or fatigue.

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4. The minor leagues are very different than the majors. Let's face it, all professional ballplayers had success at every level. Then why doesn't every player succeed in the majors? Simply put, the majors are completely different than the minors. So be cautious when analyzing minor league numbers as a predictor for major league success, especially when players hit well in the Pacific Coast League and California League (PCL and CAL, respectively). These are notorious hitter's leagues and traps for scouts and prospectors when they predict future success based on those inflated numbers.

5. Inconsistency. Young rookies are inconsistent. Due to lack of experience playing in so many games, as well as the advanced preparation of their opponents, rookies tend to fall into slumps easily. All it takes is for a little bit of information such as "he lacks the ability to lay off breaking balls in the dirt" to surface and quickly spread throughout the league, to ensure an imminent slump for a young hitter.

6. Uncertainty about imminent future. As I frequently advise, opportunity is everything. If a rookie is sent down to the minor leagues, he provides no more opportunity. It's that simple. And it is sometimes very hard to predict the near term future of rookies. They can be sent down at any time for any reason.

7. Proof of less than stellar rookie performances using past historical information. Unless your name is Mike Trout, chances are you struggled in your rookie year. Even the greatest players had their struggles early on. Just check out Mike Schmidt's rookie stats. If history is a teacher, then we can learn rookies do not often perform well.

8. Veterans are simply more predictable. The greatest thing about baseball is that there is such a huge sample size that statistics normalize. In other words, when a player has played 10 seasons and gotten over 5,000 at bats, it is fairly easy to predict his stats for the imminent future. On the contrary, rookies do not have this track record and if you think you can predict their future stats, you are merely rolling the dice. Don't roll the dice. Not when you play fantasy baseball. Stick to proven commodities to enhance your chances of winning long term.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

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